10 Bold Predictions for the 2nd Half of 2025 MLB Season

Sometimes, Major League Baseball writers will tease you with promises of bold predictions, only to offer up a bunch of lame-duck, 50/50 propositions.

But how about an AL Central team making the postseason despite a 7.5 percent chance according to the three more frequently used forecasting models?

Jacob Misiorowski leading the Milwaukee Brewers to the first World Series title in franchise history?

Or both New York teams failing to make the playoffs?

That latter one is much closer to 50-to-1 than 50/50, but we're coming in hot with unlikely-but-plausible predictions for the second half of the 2025 season, from impending trade-deadline fire sales and individual awards to a World Series pick that shouldn't feel as bold as it is, given how well the Brew Crew has been playing lately.

In most years, the All-Star Game is a welcome break from the 162-game grind, but quickly forgotten. Arguments over who deserves a roster spot rage until we're blue in the face, yet by, oh, July 20, we barely even remember the game happening or who won it.

This year was different.

That tiebreaking swing-off in which Kyle Schwarber propelled the National League to a recently rare victory over the American League was the beginning of a conversation that won't be ending any time soon.

We expected the use of the ABS system in the All-Star Game to be kind of the final straw before the expansion of challenges next season, but no one could have known we'd be treated to a new spectacle that could become commonplace during the regular season within the next few years.

Personally, I don't mind the current "overtime" format in baseball. I also didn't mind it in the pre-ghost runners era when you'd occasionally have some 19-inning game where position players had to pitch or pitchers needed to pinch run or play the field. But a lot of people don't love it, especially since the ghost-runner implementation made the whole thing feel more gimmicky.

Breaking ties via home run derbies, though?

Can't imagine you'll find a ton of opposition to that idea.

The specifics of how to implement it are debatable. Maybe it's a combo deal where we do a ghost-runners 10th inning and then a derby if necessary, like how the NHL plays 3-on-3 for a five-minute overtime period and then goes to a shootout if they're still tied. It should also probably only be done during the regular season.

But the general "they should just do a home run derby now" notion will be a constant for the next two months any time a game goes into extra innings.

With the All-Star Game now in the rearview mirror, it's full speed ahead to the July 31 trade deadline.

With just two weeks remaining to pick a trade lane, though, there are only five teams—A's, White Sox, Nationals, Pirates and Rockies—at least 10 games out of the playoff picture, guaranteed to be in a selling state of mind. And aside from a few intriguing chips in Pittsburgh, those teams don't have a whole lot to offer.

As such, market inefficiency all but guarantees there will be some tweeners who admit defeat and embrace a fire sale, despite being just one scorching-hot week away from surging to a wild-card spot.

Given their combinations of multi-year payrolls and current standings, the three teams most likely to blow it up are the Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals.

Baltimore has the fourth-best record in the majors dating back to May 24, but the O's are still nine games below .500 and 7.5 games (and many teams) back in the wild-card standings with a stockpile of expiring assets. Even if they don't get rid of anyone under team control beyond this season, there are eight players they could unload—most of whom would generate plenty of interest on the trade block—including All-Star Ryan O'Hearn. An Orioles fire sale isn't a bold prediction.

Arizona is also 5.5 games and several teams back in the NL wild-card race with plenty of impending free agents to put up for grabs. Closer Shelby Miller is dealing with an ominous forearm strain and might no longer be a trade candidate, but Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly and Josh Naylor certainly are. (Zac Gallen could be, too, though it's more likely they hang onto him and extend him a qualifying offer this winter.) The Snakes don't figure to move as many players as the O's, but it could still be a solid fire sale.

The bold/iffy one is St. Louis, sitting five games above .500 but limping into the All-Star break with eight losses in 12 games. We were expecting a bit of a Cardinals fire sale to take place during the offseason, but they could command a lot of prospect capital later this month with the likes of Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas and Phil Maton among their long list of trade candidates.

Gray, in particular, could be the beau of the deadline ball, even with the not-so-minor detail of his $35 million salary in 2026.

This one only partially overlaps with the previous prediction. Baltimore's Ryan O'Hearn and Arizona's Eugenio Suárez are likely to be dealt, but St. Louis' only All-Star (Brendan Donovan) isn't going anywhere. Nor are Arizona's Corbin Carroll or Ketel Marte, so we need to find three others to make this come true.

What makes it bold is that among the aforementioned five teams at least 10 games back in the wild-card standings, there's not a likely trade candidate to be found. The only one of the bunch who isn't under team control through at least 2029 is Washington's MacKenzie Gore, and even he has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

One plausible candidate, though, is Miami's Kyle Stowers. He is under team control through 2029, but he's already 27 years old and has been hotter than the sun as of late. Among others, San Diego would be highly motivated to acquire the left fielder.

Now they finally have Ha-Seong Kim available, the Rays might be willing to trade Brandon Lowe in their eternal quest to save money. His contract includes an $11.5 million club option for next season that some other team would probably happily pay. And when MLB Trade Rumors put out its list of the top 40 trade candidates two weeks ago, there wasn't a single middle infielder on the list. Dangle Lowe and watch the buyers go wild.

And with the last pick, how about one of the Royals' pitchers? If they slip any further than the 4.5 games they're already back in the AL wild-card standings, it could be Kris Bubic, it could be Carlos Estévez or it could be both on the move.

The starter is making just $3 million with one year of arbitration eligibility remaining. The closer is making $10.1 million this season, $10.1 million next season and has a $13 million club option (or $2 million buyout) for 2027. Either would be highly coveted.

(There has also been a lot of smoke in Minnesota regarding the possible trade of Joe Ryan and/or Byron Buxton, but getting six of the next nine games against the Rockies and Nationals will probably be enough to keep the Twins from throwing in the towel.)

As things stand, maybe this isn't much of a bold prediction.

But if you had asked anyone with a finger on the pulse of baseball four months ago to name the two players most likely to get traded this season, the answer would have been Luis Robert Jr. and Sandy Alcántara.

What none of us knew back then, though, was that Robert would end the first half with a career-worst (and near-MLB-worst among qualified hitters) .599 OPS, while Alcántara would be right there with him with a career-worst (by far) 7.22 ERA.

Robert has a $20 million club option for next season, as well as another for 2027 if the first is exercised. Alcantara is owed $17.3 million in 2026 with a $21.3 million club option for 2027.

Had they performed up to their previous standards, those remaining years of team control would have been highly coveted on the trade block. But now, the thought of giving either of these slumping former stars around $40 million for the next two seasons sounds horrible.

Alcántara was at least showing viable signs of trade value in his first four starts of June, but he was tagged for 18 earned runs across his final three appearances of the first half.

Unless he storms into the second half like a wrecking ball by mowing down Kansas City, San Diego and St. Louis, the Marlins probably aren't going to be offered enough to make it worth their while to move the 2022 NL Cy Young winner.

In the American League, Aaron Judge is -650 to win what would be the third MVP of his career. And with MLB-best marks in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, it's easy to see why that's the case.

Meanwhile, in the National League, Shohei Ohtani has been wildly impressive in his first nine innings back on the mound while still leading the league in home runs, runs scored, slugging percentage and OPS. He's listed at -800 to secure what would be his fourth MVP award in five years.

If you parlayed a bet on each to win, you would get -340 odds, suggesting there is a 77 percent chance it'll happen.

That means a 23 percent chance at least one of them fails to pull it off. Or, if you're really feeling bold, a less than two percent chance that neither wins the award.

So, can Cal Raleigh and/or Pete Crow-Armstrong do the unlikely?

Both are certainly worthy MVP candidates.

Raleigh is leading the majors in both home runs and RBI, the lone wolf standing in Judge's way in his quest for a triple crown. He's on pace for 64 home runs and just might carry an otherwise unremarkable offense to the postseason, a la Bobby Witt Jr. last season. If he also breaks Judge's single-season AL HR record en route to October, it's going to be mighty tough to justify not having him atop the ballots.

And after a bit of a mediocre June, Crow-Armstrong heated back up over the past couple of weeks to enter the All-Star break with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases—the only player in the majors already in this year's 20/20 club, and the first player to end the first half with at least 25 of each since Eric Davis in 1987.

And if we're going to mention Ohtani's pitching, got to also consider the fact that PCA leads the majors in Fielding Run Value and is probably destined for a Platinum Glove.

Expecting either Raleigh or Crow-Armstrong to maintain his current pace is a bit tougher than expecting Judge and Ohtani to keep up what they've been doing, simply because we've seen the latter do it for half a decade at this point. But the Big Dumper and/or PCA could do it.

On the National League side of the equation, there's nothing even a little bold about this prediction.

Not only is it looking like a two-horse race between Paul Skenes (best finish: third place last year) and Zack Wheeler (best finish: second place in 2021 and 2024), but the only previous winner with even the slightest bit of a Cy Young pulse is Robbie Ray (2021 AL Cy Young), presently listed at +5500.

In the American League, though, reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is the relatively clear favorite, while two-time Cy Young recipient Jacob deGrom is on the short list of candidates if Skubal fails to repeat.

Having said that, Garrett Crochet remains a strong 1B to Skubal's 1A, ending the first half with a 2.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 11.1 K/9. Both Max Fried and Hunter Brown aren't far behind, nor are Kris Bubic or Framber Valdez, all of whom would be first-time winners.

Please do not misconstrue any of this to be Skubal slander, as the Tigers ace would be my pick if Cy Young ballots were due today. But with so many AL pitchers excelling to this point in the year, the Cy Young race is going to be a tightrope walk for the remaining 12-14 starts they'll each make.

And though he has been nothing short of dominant since early April, Skubal doesn't actually lead the AL in any of the Triple Crown categories. (He does lead the majors in WHIP, FIP and K/BB, though.)

Heck, Skubal could be great the rest of the way and still fall just short if Crochet is just a little better while helping lead the Red Sox to winning the AL East, or if Brown/Valdez propel the Astros to the AL's No. 1 seed.

In each of the past two years, there has been one and only one team that went from a sub-.500 record at the All-Star break to a spot in the postseason field.

As luck would have it, both teams played in the American League Central: the 2024 Detroit Tigers (47-50 at the break) and the 2023 Minnesota Twins (45-46).

Granted, the Twins didn't have much ground to make up two years ago. They were one game below .500, but only half a game out of first place in what was one of the worst divisions of all time. Still, they posted the second-best record in the AL during the second half (42-29) and would have been close to a wild-card spot, had one been necessary.

Regardless, "from sub-.500 to October" is the name of the game here, and the division that has done it twice recently has a trio of viable threats to do it again—even though Detroit has essentially already clinched the division.

While both Minnesota (47-49) and Kansas City (47-50) could be the ones to make it happen, let's get more specifically bold by proclaiming it will be the Cleveland Guardians (46-49) who pull it off.

Why the ones with a 7.5 percent chance of making the postseason, averaging their odds from Baseball Reference (4.6), FanGraphs (10.2) and PECOTA (7.7)?

For starters, they have the easiest remaining schedule in the majors, per Tankathon. In fact, three of their first four series of the second half are at home against the A's, O's and Rockies, with a three-game set in Kansas City sandwiched in between. That could have them flying high into the trade deadline, much less likely to sell off an Emmanuel Clase or a Carlos Santana, maybe even buying a much-needed bat or two.

And speaking of starters, both Shane Bieber and John Means should be back from their Tommy John surgeries in the next month or so, which could be quite the godsend for a rotation whose fWAR for the year ranks ahead of only the aforementioned A's, O's and Rockies.

We're not expecting Bieber to immediately regain his former Cy Young form or anything, but a considerable boost is more than plausible.

This really shouldn't be a bold prediction. And as far as the betting lines are concerned, it isn't. Aside from the Blue Jays at -400, all six teams in question are at least -1000 to make the playoffs. A six-leg parlay would only pay out at -175 odds.

However, history tells us at least one team is supposed to blow it.

Seattle led the AL West at last year's All-Star break, but it missed the postseason by a few games.

The year before that, both Cleveland and Cincinnati held narrow leads in the Central divisions at the break, each ultimately finishing at least 10 games back.

Same deal in 2022, with both ASB Central leaders—Minnesota in the AL; Milwaukee in the NL—missing the postseason.

In 2021, the New York Mets crashed and burned in spectacular fashion, going from 48-40 with a four-game lead in the NL East to missing the playoffs by a margin of 11.5 games.

No All-Star break in 2020, but the 2019 Cubs, 2018 Phillies, 2017 Brewers, 2015 Angels, 2015 Nationals, 2014 Brewers, 2013 Diamondbacks, 2012 White Sox, 2012 Pirates and 2012 Dodgers have all squandered what were division leads during the 10-or-more-teams era of MLB's postseason field.

In total, that's 16 out of 72 (22.2%) All-Star break division leaders from 2012-24 who missed the postseason, as well as 11 out of 12 seasons (91.7%) in which it happened.

The year 2016 was the lone exception to the rule, and even then, the Giants turned what was the best record in baseball (57-33) and a 6.5-game lead in the NL West into a "just barely made it as the No. 5 seed" photo finish with a 30-42 record in the second half.

But let's cross our fingers on Toronto continuing to outperform its modest +17 run differential and say that all six get the job done for a change this year.

Of the bunch, this is the one I least believe will actually happen.

The Mets pitching staff is finally getting healthy, Brandon Nimmo has been hot for a month and it's looking like Ronny Mauricio is going to be the big piece of the puzzle that Mark Vientos became last season.

They already have a three-game cushion over current NL seventh-place San Francisco and could just about end that race in the next few weeks with two series against the Giants coming up soon.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have a slightly bigger cushion (3.5 games) over the AL's seventh-place team (Tampa Bay), as well as the second-best run differential in the majors (+111). It's a foregone conclusion they'll be upgrading their injury-riddled rotation ahead of the trade deadline. They'll probably do something about their third base situation, too.

In both cases, it's far more likely they'll win their division (NYM +105 in NL East, NYY -120 in AL East) than miss the postseason altogether (NYM +500, NYY +700).

A $100 parlay on NYY and NYM both missing the playoffs would pay out $4,700.

But, hey, it could happen.

Goodness knows the Mets have had some second-half collapses in their history, and they do have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the majors.

Meanwhile, the Aaron Boone-loathing Yankees fans could tell you they've been much more of a first-half team over the past three years (171-110 with a +325 run differential) than any sort of second-half surger (104-101 with a +37 run differential).

If that trend continues—or, heaven forbid, Aaron Judge misses any time due to injury—there are plenty of other AL teams champing at the bit to leapfrog a Yankees team that plays .500-ish ball the rest of the way.

One year removed from the massive market mayhem of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series, something like Brewers-Tigers in the 2025 Fall Classic would be a tough pill for MLB's advertising sales team to swallow.

However, that doesn't make it any less plausible, as the Brew Crew surged into the All-Star break with a 20-7 record dating back to Jacob Misiorowski's MLB debut.

On offense, Milwaukee is quite the "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" masterclass. Both Jackson Chourio (16 HR, 16 SB) and Christian Yelich (19 HR, 14 SB) are well on their way to the 25/25 club, but neither of those best bats on the team was exactly a strong candidate for the All-Star Game.

Such is life, though, when elite defense and aggressive baserunning are the calling cards of your position-player group. Per FanGraphs, Milwaukee ranks first in base running, fourth in defense and 22nd in slugging percentage.

Combine that with what has suddenly become one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, and this might be the most legitimate World Series contender that Milwaukee has ever assembled.

Freddy Peralta (11-4, 111.2 IP, 2.66 ERA) has looked great all season. Brandon Woodruff (10.1 IP, 0 BB, 18 K) has been lethal in his two appearances after missing the first 89 games of the season. The legend of The Miz continues to grow with each time he takes the mound. And Nestor Cortes (out since April 3 with an elbow strain) should be back in the next week or so, at which point Milwaukee has to decide what to do with Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester, both of whom have pitched unexpectedly well.

The Brewers are still listed at +2500, though. That's the 10th-best World Series odds for what has been the best team in baseball over the past month. Value like that doesn't come around very often, but it's surely somewhat rooted in the fact that Milwaukee is seeking what would be its first World Series crown in its 57th season of existence.